Just when we think we are moving out of winter and into spring, we are shown how silly those thoughts were. As I was shoveling the many inches of snow this morning, I thought back to the weather report where the weather man said it would be a small snow and easily melt. Forecasting the weather is like trying to tell people what will happen in the real estate market. Trends, that is what we watch. There are also indicators that help us forecast what is to come. What I watch for is the following: interest rates, employment, consumer confidence, weather conditions, inventory. current sales, and anything in the media that might distract buyers and sellers. Watching these indicators I can only tell people the future in real estate will be up and down. This weekend rates fell to under 5% conventional and 5% FHA. You could not ask for better rates. We are seeing less houses come on the market. That is good bad. Sellers don't need any more competition, yet buyers need better houses to choose from. Unemployment and concerns over layoffs is not good. Best Buy is doing another round of layoffs. We are back to winter and that sops buyers form being anxious to buy. They love to dream about grilling out as they see houses. The media is quiet right now. The biggest thing today is who will get best actors at the Oscars on Sunday. What is of concern to me is that in the month of December in the Twin Cities 49% of the sales were bank involved. That is still indicating too many foreclosed properties and too many buyers looking for deals and not the higher end properties. I would rather know the truth when someone is forecasting. That way I can be prepared. Sellers need to be prepared for longer market time and less dollars for their properties. Buyers need to be prepared to act. The climate for buyers is too good for them to remain as unmotivated as they are. Remember, just like the weather can change so will the real estate climate.
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